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2102 Atlantic hurricane season (Hypotheticalseasons7547's version)
The 2102 Atlantic hurricane season was an above-average season due to a La Nina event. It featured Newfoundland's worst storm since 2010's Hurricane Igor, one of the largest Atlantic hurricanes ever recorded, and a rare merger of two tropical cyclones. Season summary The first named storm of the season, Aeryn, formed on June 1, peaking as a 60 mph tropical storm before making landfall in Galveston, TX, with winds of 45 mph. A couple of weeks later, Tropical Depression Two unexpectedly formed in the Carribean, but stayed weak, and also moved very quickly. ImageSize = width:800 height:210 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/06/2102 till:01/12/2102 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/06/2102 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_<39_mph_(0–62_km/h)_(TD) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39–73_mph_(63–117 km/h)_(TS) id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74–95_mph_(119–153_km/h)_(C1) id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96–110_mph_(154–177_km/h)_(C2) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111–130_mph_(178–209_km/h)_(C3) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_131–155_mph_(210–250_km/h)_(C4) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_=_≥157_mph_(≥252_km/h)_(C5) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:01/06/2102 till:05/06/2102 color:TS text:"Aeryn " from:16/06/2102 till:18/06/2102 color:TD text:"Two" from:13/07/2102 till:19/07/2102 color:C2 text:"Brent " from:15/07/2102 till:21/07/2102 color:C3 text:"Cat " from:25/07/2102 till:29/07/2102 color:C1 text:"Denzel" from:03/08/2102 till:08/08/2102 color:C2 text:"Ellie " from:10/08/2102 till:12/08/2102 color:TS text:"French" barset:break from:11/08/2102 till:13/08/2102 color:TS text:"Gwyneth" from:15/08/2102 till:27/08/2102 color:C1 text:"Harold" from:20/08/2102 till:22/08/2102 color:C1 text:"Iva " from:30/08/2102 till:14/09/2102 color:C5 text:"James " from:02/09/2102 till:07/09/2102 color:C3 text:"Kathy" from:17/09/2102 till:27/09/2102 color:C4 text:"Larry " from:18/09/2102 till:27/09/2102 color:C4 text:"Margaret " barset:break from:30/09/2102 till:02/10/2102 color:C1 text:"Nathan " from:15/10/2102 till:16/10/2102 color:TS text:"Olga " from:20/10/2102 till:20/10/2102 color:TS text:"Paul " from:12/11/2102 till:15/11/2102 color:TS text:"Raquel" barset:break bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/06/2102 till:01/07/2102 text:June from:01/07/2102 till:01/08/2102 text:July from:01/08/2102 till:01/09/2102 text:August from:01/09/2102 till:01/10/2102 text:September from:01/10/2102 till:01/11/2102 text:October from:01/11/2102 till:01/12/2102 text:November TextData = pos:(570,30) text:"(From the" pos:(617,30) text:"Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale)" Storms Tropical Storm Aeryn On May 29, a low pressure system from an old front began moving westward and organizing. A tropical depression formed on June 1. Increasing wind shear slowed intensification, but the storm intensified into Tropical Storm Aeryn. The center reformed to the northeast, and the shear abated. Aeryn intensified into a 60 mph tropical storm. Increasing shear caused the storm to weaken, and it made landfall with winds of 45 mph. The storm slowed and turned to the northeast, never moving far inland. It became a remnant low on June 5, and dissipated the next day. Rainfall totals were low due to the shear pushing most of the convection offshore. Tropical Depression Two On June 16, a tropical wave unexpectedly formed into a tropical depression. None of the forecast models forecasted its genesis, not even the most aggressive ones. It was very weak and fast all through its lifetime. It dumped rain on Haiti and Jamaica, but the storm's fast movement limited rainfall totals. It sped toward the Gulf of Mexico, where conditions were forecast to be favorable, but its brief interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula destroyed its feeble circulation. An unforecast upper level low formed and generated enough wind shear to prevent the depression from regenerating. The remnant trough made landfall in Tampico, Mexico. Hurricane Brent On July 8, a tropical wave began gradually organizing into a tropical cyclone. A tropical depression formed on July 13. Conditions were favorable in its area, and it developed into Tropical Storm Brent later that day. It gradually strengthened into a hurricane. A TUTT caused the storm to weaken into a tropical storm, but said TUTT dissipated, allowing the storm to strengthen again. It gradually strengthened as it moved through the Caribbean Sea. It peaked as a Category 2 hurricane, with winds of 105 mph. It weakened slightly before making landfall in the Dominican Republic, but still packed winds of 100 mph. Steering currents suddenly collapsed, causing the storm to meander over Hispaniola until its dissipation on July 19. Due to the damage and deaths caused by winds, flooding, and mudslides, the name Brent was retired from the naming list and replaced with Bryan. Hurricane Cat On July 13, an unusually strong front dipped into the Gulf of Mexico. A low formed on the tail end of it, and moved toward Florida. It made landfall in that state, but the wetlands there allowed for continued development. It formed into a tropical depression hours later, and strengthened into Tropical Storm Cat shortly after emerging into the Atlantic. It strengthened at a pretty good rate, and made to a Category 3 hurricane. It passed uncomfortably close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Luckily, the worst of it passed just to the east of that area. It weakened to a Category 2 hurricane, and passed very close to Cape Cod, Massachusetts. That area recorded a peak wind gust of 99 mph, and a maximum sustained wind of 86 mph. It weakened to a Category 1 hurricane, and mover right the coast of Nova Scotia. It then turned extratropical, and quickly weakened soon after. It dissipated just 16 hours after becoming extratropical, despite packing hurricane-force winds at the time of transition. Hurricane Denzel On July 23, a trough of low pressure form a front and a tropical wave merged. The merged system organized, and became a tropical depression two days later. Initially, the depression was forecast to strengthen into a weak to moderate tropical storm (upon which it would receive the name Denzel), then become extratropical. However, the depression strengthened more quickly than forecast, and became a hurricane. The hurricane soon began weakening. However, the weakening was surprisingly slow, and the storm remained fully tropical. There now was a very real possibility of the storm making landfall on the Iberian Peninsula before becoming extratropical. On July 28, the storm finally began transitioning into an extratropical storm due to an approaching cold front. The storm became extratropical just before landfall in northwestern Spain. Twelve hours later, Denzel was absorbed by the front. Hurricane Ellie A tropical wave began organizing on August 1, and developed into a tropical depression two days later. Twelve hours after that, it developed into Tropical Storm Ellie. Ellie gradually strengthened as it began recurving. An eyewall formed, and the storm was upgraded into a hurricane as it neared Bermuda. Its eyewall passed over Bermuda, which recorded a peak wind gust of 92 mph. The storm surprised forecasters by continuing to strengthen, and it reached Category 2 strength, which it retained as it passed by Newfoundland. Only then did it peak in intensity. It was Newfoundland's worst storm since Hurricane Igor in 2010. The storm transitioned into a powerful extratropical cyclone packing winds of 90 mph. It slowly weakened after that. The storm was absorbed into a larger extratropical system over the northeastern Atlantic on August 10. The name Ellie was retired from the naming list and replaced by Eliza. Subtropical Storm French A trough of low pressure positioned beneath an upper level low began developing into a subtropical depression, which formed on August 10. It made a 90-degree turn to the east, and started affecting the Azores. The storm strengthened into Subtropical Storm French. The storm dropped some rain on the Azores, but any flooding was minor. The storm transitioned into an extratropical storm on August 12, and dissipated twelve hours later. Tropical Storm Gwyneth A well-organized tropical wave exited the coast of Africa on August 11, and almost immediately formed into a tropical depression. Almost all of the forecast models predicted it to become a strong hurricane. It intensified into Tropical Storm Gwyneth 12 hours after forming. It gradually intensified, and brought heavy rain and gusty winds to the Cape Verde Islands. However, the storm ingested an unexpectedly large quantity of Saharan dust. This rapidly weakened the storm to a tropical depression, which gradually weakened for another 24 hours before decaying into a remnant low. The low dissipated on August 15. Hurricane Henry A tropical depression formed near the Cape Verde Islands on August 15. It strengthened into Tropical Storm Harold six hours later. Further gradual strengthening occurred, and Henry strengthened into a hurricane. Later, conditions gradually deteriorated, and the storm started to weaken. It was downgraded into a tropical storm, then a depression. The depression was forecast to soon decay into a remnant low. However, it was persistent. For several days, it defied predictions to dissipate or decay into a remnant low. It moved slowly throughout that time. There were several times it almost degenerated into a remnant, low, but it kept generating deep convection at the last minute. Finally, on August 27, Henry failed to generate deep convection for a long time, resulting in its degradation into a remnant low. The low then accelerated and was absorbed by a front on August 28. Hurricane Iva On August 20, a tropical depression formed just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. It was initially slow to intensify, and moved rapidly. It became Tropical Storm Iva 12 hours after forming. A high pressure system moved southward, forcing the storm to move southwest. Once over the Bay of Campeche, it underwent fast intensification, its pressure dropping 20 mb in just nine hours. Then, the storm peaked as a Category 1 hurricane. Increasing shear began to weaken it as it moved toward land, though it retained hurricane status at landfall. Then, a combination of further increasing shear, drying air, and interaction with mountains induced rapid weakening and dissipation. The shear pushed most of the convection onshore, causing flooding and landslides. Hurricane James A well-organized and very large tropical wave exited the coast of Africa on August 30, and soon formed into a tropical depression. It started to move north around the Cape Verde Islands, but a blocking high stopped its northward movement. It was then the depression became Tropical Storm James. James was then slow to move, but later began to pick up speed. It intensifies at varying rates -- sometimes slow, sometimes fast -- until it reached its amazingly strong peak intensity of 185 mph and 910 mb pressure. For the next 66 hours, only slight fluctuations in intensity occurred. The hurricane devastated the Northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Then it made landfall in Hispaniola, causing devastation there, too. The mountains of Hispaniola, combined with the effects of an eyewall replacement cycle, caused the storm to rapidly weaken into a category 3 hurricane. The storm then closely followed the coast of Cuba, causing a great deal of damage there, too (as well as portions of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands). Once it got into the Gulf of Mexico, it rapidly intensified into a Category 5. But soon, an eyewall replacement cycle began weakening the storm again. But then, the storm grew to an immense size, taking up 75% of the width of the Gulf of Mexico. Once it neared land, it suddenly weakened into a category 2 hurricane. It made landfall at that strength in western Louisiana After landfall, the storm continued to rapidly weaken, until it was a tropical depression. The depression turned eastward and eventually became extratropical, turned northeastward, and later merged with a front, both on September 14. During the period of the storm's life described in the previous several sentences, the storm caused flooding on much of the south central and eastern U.S. The name James was retired from the naming list and replaced by Joel. Hurricane Kathy On September 1, an area of low pressure formed on the northern end of a tropical wave. Just 24 hours later, it formed into a tropical depression. It later formed into Tropical Storm Kathy and began quickly recurving. It rapidly intensified into a hurricane, but then stopped intensifying due to increasing shear and dry air. Kathy passed to the north of Bermuda, causing minor damage and flooding there. Then, conditions became extremely favorable, and Kathy quickly became a Category 3 hurricane. Cooling water temperatures caused the storm to weaken. The Weakening process became more gradual once the storm became a category 1 hurricane. On September 7, it turned extratropical, still packing hurricane-force winds. A high pressure system later caused Kathy to slow down. It continued to gradually weaken. The storm began making a 180-degree turn off the coast of northwestern France and moved even slower, causing flooding problems there. The storm then dissipated. Hurricane Larry On September 17, a subtropical depression formed in the Central Atlantic. It moved to the southeast, unusual for a storm at its location. It gradually acquired tropical characteristics, and eventually became a tropical depression. It soon strengthened into Tropical Storm Larry. Larry continued to move southeastward, and began a Fujiwahara interaction with Tropical Storm Margaret. The two storms merged, and the combined storm was referred to as Larry-Margaret because the two storms had the same pressure before merging. The merger disrupted the thunderstorm activity, and dry air prevented the thunderstorm activity from recovering. This caused the storm to weaken into a tropical depression. It was on the verge of becoming a remnant low when a burst of deep convection -- with cloud tops reaching record heights -- formed over the storm. The storm intensified into a Category 2 hurricane in just 12 hours. The storm's intensification then slowed, taking 18 more hours to intensify into a Category 3 hurricane, and 36 further hours to category 4 hurricane. The storm peaked just shy of a Category 5 hurricane. The storm began to weaken due to an eyewall replacement cycle and cooler waters. It passed to the west of Bermuda, causing very strong winds and heavy rains there. The storm then moved into an area of very strong steering currents. This caused the storm to accelerate to a very fast pace, and was heading right for Maine. The storm made landfall in Maine with winds of 115 mph, the first landfalling major hurricane ever recorded in the state of Maine, causing unprecedented damage there. The storm began rapidly weaken, but it entered the Canadian province of New Brunswick while it still had winds of 100 mph, causing unprecedented damage there as well. The storm became extratropical over the Gulf of St. Lawrence with winds of 80 mph. It then slowed its weakening process, and was still a powerful extratropical cyclone as it battered Newfoundland with winds of 70 mph, and moved into the northern Atlantic. The name Larry was retired from the naming lists and replaced with Levi. Hurricane Margaret On September 18, a well organized tropical wave formed into a tropical depression near the Cape Verde Islands. It brought heavy rain and gusty winds to those islands. The depression strengthened into tropical storm Margaret and began a Fujiwahara interaction with Tropical Storm Larry. The two storms merged, and the combined storm was referred to as Larry-Margaret because the two storms had the same pressure before merging. The merger disrupted the thunderstorm activity, and dry air prevented the thunderstorm activity from recovering. This caused the storm to weaken into a tropical depression. It was on the verge of becoming a remnant low when a burst of deep convection -- with cloud tops reaching record heights -- formed over the storm. The storm intensified into a Category 2 hurricane in just 12 hours. The storm's intensification then slowed, taking 18 more hours to intensify into a Category 3 hurricane, and 36 further hours to category 4 hurricane. The storm peaked just shy of a Category 5 hurricane. The storm began to weaken due to an eyewall replacement cycle and cooler waters. It passed to the west of Bermuda, causing very strong winds and heavy rains there. The storm then moved into an area of very strong steering currents. This caused the storm to accelerate to a very fast pace, and was heading right for Maine. The storm made landfall in Maine with winds of 115 mph, the first landfalling major hurricane ever recorded in the state of Maine, causing unprecedented damage there. The storm began rapidly weaken, but it entered the Canadian province of New Brunswick while it still had winds of 100 mph, causing unprecedented damage there as well. The storm became extratropical over the Gulf of St. Lawrence with winds of 80 mph. It then slowed its weakening process, and was still a powerful extratropical cyclone as it battered Newfoundland with winds of 70 mph, and moved into the northern Atlantic. The name Margaret was retired from the naming lists and replaced with Miranda. Hurricane Nathan On September 30, a tropical depression formed in the Gulf of Mexico from a tropical wave. It moved rapidly northward, and quickly strengthened into a tropical storm (upon which it was given the name Nathan), then a hurricane. It made landfall in Louisiana with winds of 85 mph. The storm turned eastward due to a ridge of high pressure. dominating the Eastern and Central U.S. The storm then weakened as quickly as it strengthened. It became a tropical storm, then a depression, and then merged with a front 12 hours after becoming a tropical depression. Tropical Storm Olga A low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico developed into a tropical depression on October 15. Favorable conditions allowed it to gradually strengthen. It then became Tropical Storm Olga later on October 15. Olga continued to gradually strengthen, and it made landfall in Florida on October 16. A front then induced wind shear, causing the storm to weaken. Olga was absorbed by the same front on the eastern coast of Florida. Tropical Storm Paul A tropical wave crossed the Yucatan Peninsula on October 18. It entered the Bay of Campeche and organized. It formed into a tropical depression on October 20, and was soon upgraded to Tropical storm Paul. Paul did not have much time to strengthen further before making landfall in Mexico. The storm then rapidly weakened and later dissipated. Tropical Storm Raquel A subtropical depression formed in the Central Atlantic. It moved to the west-northwest with little change. A trough pick it up, causing it to slow and turn to the east-northeast. During this time, it became tropical. The storm sped up, but soon slowed down again, due to the trough collapsing, causing the storm to slow again. It finally began to organize, and turned to the north-northwest. Another trough began to pick it up, and in began to speed up again. It strengthened into Tropical Storm Raquel and curved to the northeast continuing to slowly strengthen. It then became extratropical, weakened, and merged with the trough on November 15. Storm Names Retirement In the spring of 2103, the names Brent, Ellie, James, Larry, ''and Margaret'' were retired due to the extensive damage and deaths they caused. They were replaced with Bryan, Eliza, Joel, Levi, and'' Maisie,'' respectively.